http://www.mexicaninfluenza.net

I don’t think that thsi thing will go pandemic! It will be gone within a month.

Of course the kids have been out of school since last Friday, and as I am a school teacher, I have just been at home. Knowing that all the schoolchildren were at home, in all of Mexico City and Mexico State really concerned me.

At first people were blowing it off, many friends I have were very dismissive of the warnings, but as the weekend wore on, many of those friends decided to stay at home after all.

I’ve started receiving very elaborate emails detailing with links and references theories as to what is “really” going on – I’ve received at this point at least 4 very distinct ones, and I have one friend who continues to assert that the government of Mexico is behind all of this… The conspiracy theories themselves don’t interest me – I just find it fascinating the need to seek out and insist on connections and plots. Another friend of mine almost had an argument with a friend, over the same kind of thing. I just keep saying, let’s just be careful and see what happens.

There are disquieting rumors, again, all hearsay, about people who work in hospitals and how this has been going on for much longer,etc. In Mexico, no one really trusts the media – so people pretty much assume there’s a lot more going on than what we are being told. That’s the most frustrating part. The uncertainty.

I live downtown, I can go out for a walk and there are a lot of stores open, but business is down. About half the people are wearing facemasks – but there are no more to be had, they sold out by last weekend. If you sneeze or cough, people will give you suspicious looks and get out of your way fast. People are much more careful with their personal space.

Actually, it’s pretty boring. Combined with the uncertainty, and the mounting worries about the economy, it’s almost depressing. Curiously, I don’t feel afraid of catching the flu. I’m mostly worried about how things will play out in the next week.

That´s about it for now, I hope my update is helpful.

Nice post, but I’d love to read the properly alarming reports! Could you mail them to me?

Thanks,
Bryn

I take issue, however with your projected outcomes. They are, after all, projections (and you seem to recognize this). In particular your contention that societal customs and infrastructure will be transformed. That’s unclear. While it is certain that a pandemic of significant force will certainly stress our infrastructure and put hitherto undefined pressures on our customs there are no clear lines, I think, to the sort of transformation you forsee.

If I may relate this present situation to to another, current situation: our national disgrace of torture. It has been pointed out, elsewhere (and please forgive me if I forget where…) that during the height of the attacks on London and England by the Nazis the opportunity presented itself to torture downed German pilots and captured German intelligence officer. Winston Churchill, with the backing of Her Majesty’s government, refused.

I think the London bombings during WWII, and subsequent bombings on German cities by Americans, and indeed the fairly wholesale devastation of much of Europe in WWI and WWII, represented stresses and pressures far in excess of what we’ll see in any but the most virulent pandemic. It was, I think, one of the worst situations imaginable, but many people, particularly Londoners, refused to buckle under that stress. They reached deep and found some backbone. We’re not, fundamentally, all that different.

Our present use of torture was the decision of a very few small-minded people who, to a one, lacked any kind of backbone acting on behalf of a very comfortable peoples. I think a pandemic might remove that comfort, but it won’t remove backbone.

Just some thoughts. I appreciate the dialogue…

Thanks for commenting. You’re witnessing first hand how odd things can get. I only know it from reading books. Maybe you can tell us more about how things are, etc?

Yes, you’re right that we’re only at level 5. I should probably have made that clear. As for whether it can be called a pandemic, the WHO statement says things like “WHO will be tracking the pandemic” and “how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?”. and “the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response”.

From all that I think it’s fairly safe to think that the WHO is of the opinion that we’re at the beginning of a pandemic. The word itself doesn’t matter much – I guess you know its Greek etymology.

Anyway, you’re right, and apologies for not being more clear.

The reason is that this is a new influenza that has genetic material from other species. The normal (epidemic) flu kills hundreds of thousands a year, maybe 1/2 a million. We know a lot about that kind of flu as the strains are typically very similar to the ones from the previous season. That’s why the previous vaccine often still gives good coverage. We still need to update the vaccine every year or two, but the change is relatively slow. We even get to base the vaccine on an existing strain that is at least half a year old by the time the vaccine is manufactured and available to normal people.

The problem with a virus that comes out of another species, or partly from another species, is that it’s very likely no human immune system has ever encountered it before. It’s possible that our immune systems will have no defense at all against it – or even that they will mount a massive defense that is completely ineffective (see cytokine storm in Wikipedia). So when we see something like that happen, the worldwide alert system kicks in. Such a virus may be able, or via a small number of mutations be able, to spread across the globe unchecked. Even though it’s still “flu” it’s not a flu that’s anything like what our bodies have seen before. Of course it’s also possible that a virus of this kind doesn’t prove particularly fit in our bodies. It’s a very rare event that a cross-species virus even gets a foothold. When it does though, and here it very clearly has, it’s time to be super vigilant.

The thing about pandemic infection is once it starts to accelerate or worse, once it’s all over the place, it’s kinda to late to contain. That’s where we are now. So, the faster they move to 6, the more likely it is that other mechanisms can be put into place to stop the spread and/or speed up research which can save people’s lives if not outright protect them from infection. On the other hand, they can’t be seen to be alarmist, so there’s a balance to be struck. A very careful and nerve-wracking balance.

“the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent”
“Phase 6, the pandemic phase”

Doesn’t sound like its an official influenza pandemic to me.

I don’t know what to suggest re face masks. I was looking around on the street today, half expecting to see one. Back in 1918 before we even knew what a virus was (and how small they are) the typical mask would have been totally ineffective – the virions would likely have gone through as if the mask wasn’t even there. So… false sense of security. It should be clear that you can’t just buy a mask from a street vendor.

The symptoms of the current virus are just like regular flu. The WHO and CDC sites are quite clear about that. Without going into details, in 1918 the situation was quite different and much much more alarming. Google cytokine storm. There were people who thought the bubonic plague had returned.

I’d like to hear what you think about all the measures people are taking themselves like face masks, etc., and what you’d suggest we do (knowing about all the social implications of the pandemic).

In fact, I’ve heard some people describe the symptoms of H1N1 as similar to Ebola :) It’s quite funny but also disturbing to see how people react to threats like these, and how quickly they seem to invent information out of thin air to justify their own irrational panic.