OK, it’s a pandemic. Now what?
Here are some more thoughts on the (now official) influenza pandemic.
I would like again to emphasize that I’m not an authority and I’m not trying to pass myself off as one.
I’ve already been accused of deliberate fear-mongering. That’s the opposite of my purpose. On the contrary, it’s important to stay calm and there are good reasons for doing so. If you don’t want to know a bit of history and to have some sense of things that have happened in previous pandemics, then you don’t have to read what follows. There’s no harm in staying calm via not knowing. On the other hand, there is harm in being gripped by fear due to ignorance.
If you do read, try to keep in mind that the main point here is that you shouldn’t be overwhelmed by fear or begin to panic. There’s no reason to. Plus it will only make things worse.
On the subject of being an authority and fear-mongering, after I wrote up the first set of thoughts I was invited to be a guest commentator on a radio show. I declined. It feels very irresponsible to say anything about influenza given that I am not an expert and don’t even work in the field anymore, but OTOH it feels irresponsible to remain totally silent given that I know at least some historical things fairly well.
To illustrate the conflict: On April 26 it seemed crystal clear to me that the virus was going worldwide. You only had to have seen the Google map that I twittered about the day before to see that it was going to be all over the place in days. But I didn’t want to point that out, and when I was asked I told the asker to be his own judge. I linked to a map showing Mexico and the US earlier and said “hopefully we wont have to zoom out” – trying to get people to consider that we would probably soon have to zoom out.
So I think I’ve been quite restrained. This post is also restrained. As I said above, there are good reasons not to sensationalize things or to create the impression that people should panic.
So here we go again, a few more thoughts as they come to mind. These are things that I find interesting, with a few scattered opinions (all of which are just guesses). There’s no real structure to this post.
The WHO have announced today that we’re officially in a pandemic. That doesn’t really mean much, but it’s good to have a candid and early declaration – part of the problem historically has been slowness to even admit there’s a problem. The WHO didn’t even exist in 1918.
In case you don’t know, there’s pretty good evidence that humans have been fighting influenza for thousands of years.
The most interesting thing to me in reading about the 1918 pandemic is the social impact of the disease.
One thing to make clear is that the current pandemic is not the 1918 pandemic. I tend to agree with those who say that a pandemic of that nature could not take place today – but note that people, perhaps especially scientists – would have said that at all times prior to and after 1918. We often under-estimate the forces of nature and over-estimate our own knowledge and level of control.
BTW, something like 75% of people who died during World War 1 did so because of the flu pandemic, which didn’t really take off until November of 1918. Amazing.
As I mentioned in my earlier post, under normal circumstances (even in a pandemic), flu doesn’t kill you. It leaves you susceptible to opportunistic follow-on disease. The good news is that we are vastly more informed now than we were in 1918 about the nature of infectious diseases. For example, we know a lot about pneumonia, which we did not in 1918. See the moving story of the amazing Oswald Avery, who dedicated his life to the disease and along the way fingered DNA as the vehicle of genetic inheritance – and never won a Nobel prize.
So the care of people who have been struck down by flu is going to be much more informed this time around. And it will probably be better in practice too. I put it that way because odd societal things happen in a pandemic. I hesitate to go into detail, because some people will assume that things that happened way back when will necessarily happen again this time around.
One of those things is that medical systems get overrun by the sick. Plus, doctors and nurses understandably decide that their jobs have become too dangerous and they stop showing up for work. So there can be a sharp drop-off in the availability of medical help.
So much so that there were reports of doctors and nurses being held hostage in houses in 1918. I.e., if you could get a doctor to visit to attend to your family, the situation was so dire you might consider pulling a gun on him/her and suggesting they make themselves comfortable for the duration.
The problem is not so much that many people are dying, it’s that a much larger number are simultaneously extremely ill and that panic grips them and everyone else. Roughly 30% of all people caught the 1918 flu. I have another post I may write up on that. Normal (epidemic) flu catches 10-15% of people in any give year.
Many of our systems are engineered to provide just-in-time resources, to cut the fat in order to maximize profitability, etc. That means that we’re closer to collapse that would seem apparent. How many days of fresh food are there on hand in a major city?
None of this is meant to be alarmist. But the reality is that alarming things have happened in the past.
Most interesting and revealing to me is that our cherished notions of politeness, of our generosity, our goodwill towards our neighbors, etc., can all go out the window pretty quickly. I’ve long held that all those things are the merest veneer on our underlying biological / evolutionary reality. We’re very fond of the ideas that we’re somehow no longer primates, that we’re not really the product of billions of years of evolutionary history, that somehow the last centuries of vaunted rationality have put paid to all those primitive lower impulses. I think that’s completely wrong. Behavior during a full-scale pandemic is one of the things that makes that very clear.
In a pandemic, if things get ugly, you can expect to see all manner of anti-social behavior. If you read John Barry’s book The Great Influenza or Crosby’s America’s Forgotten Pandemic you’ll get some graphic illustrations.
If I had a supply of tamiflu (which I don’t), I wouldn’t tell anyone. That’s deliberately anti-social. Ask yourself: What would you do if you had kids who were still healthy and your neighbor called you in desperation to tell you that his/her kids seemed to have come down with influenza? Get out your family’s tamiflu supply and hand it over? Lie? What if they knew you had it and you refused to give it or share? What if your neighbor’s kid died and yours never even got the flu? What kind of relationship would be left after the pandemic had passed?
This may all seem a bit extreme and deliberately provocative of me, and yet those sorts of dilemmas (sans tamiflu, naturally) were commonplace in 1918. As you might expect, they don’t always get resolved in ways that accord well with our preferred beliefs about our own natures in easier times. Crosby speculates that the reason the pandemic of 1918 is “forgotten” is due largely to the fact that it coincided with the war, and that people were generally exhausted and dispirited and wanting to move on. I’d speculate further that people en masse frequently behaved in ways that they weren’t proud of, and wanted to forget about it and act as if it hadn’t happened ASAP. That’s just a guess, of course.
In any case, if there’s a full-blown pandemic, societal structures that we take for granted are going to be hugely transformed. Medical services, emergency services, food supply, child care and education, job absenteeism, large numbers of the people who would normally be in charge of things coming down sick and being unable to do their normal jobs, etc. All sorts of things are impacted and lots of them are interconnected. The system breaks down in many unanticipated ways as all sorts of things that “could never happen” are all happening at once.
You might think I’m fear-mongering here, but I’m not. In fact I’m refraining from going into detail. Go read John Barry’s book, or any of the others, and see for yourself.
The important thing to remember in all this is that we are no longer in 1918. BTW, there were also influenza pandemics in 1957 (killing just a couple of million people) and 1968 (killing a mere million).
Apart from the fact that we’ve advanced hugely in medical terms, we are also much better connected. I can sit in the safety of my apartment in Barcelona and broadcast calming information like this blog post to thousands of people. We are better informed. We know that panic and fear greatly compound the impact of a pandemic. They feed on one another and prolong the systemic societal collapse. Because we can communicate so easily via the internet – provided our ISPs stay online – we can help keep each other calm. That’s an important advantage.
So my guess is that this wave isn’t going to be so bad, certainly not in terms of mortality. One thing to keep in mind though is that the virus isn’t going away. It will likely enjoy the Southern hemisphere winter, and we’ll see it again next Northern hemisphere winter. And yes, those are guesses. Because influenza is a single-stranded RNA virus it mutates rapidly (you don’t get the copy protection of a double strand). So this is the beginning, not the end, even if the pandemic fizzles out in the short term. It will be back – probably in less virulent form – but by then we’ll also have a good leg up on potential vaccines, and we’ll also know it’s coming.
OK, I’ll stop there for now. I have tons of other things I could write now that I’m warmed up. You can follow me on Twitter if you like, though I doubt I’ll be saying much about influenza.
If you truly believe I’m fear mongering, please send me an email or leave your email address in the comments. I’ll send you mail with some truly shocking and frightening stuff, or maybe fax you a few pages from some books. Believe me, it gets a lot nastier than anything I’ve described. Things are not that bad, certainly not yet. We’re not in 1918 anymore
So, stay calm, and do the simple things to keep yourself relatively safe. If everyone follows instructions like those, the virus wont have a chance to spread the way it could otherwise. That may sound like pat concluding advice, but there’s actually a lot to it – the epidemiology of infectious disease – in part the mathematics of infection – can be hugely altered depending on the behavior the typical individual. Following basic hygiene and getting your kids to too will make a big difference. There’s no denying that this is going to get worse before it gets better, but we can each do our part to minimize its opportunities.
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April 30th, 2009 at 1:19 am
Thanks Terry for this post. I’ve heard a lot of urban myths lately about this pandemic, and it’s great that, even though you’re not an expert, you’re still way more knowledgeable than the average person, and that you’ve chosen to share your views and thoughts.
I’d like to hear what you think about all the measures people are taking themselves like face masks, etc., and what you’d suggest we do (knowing about all the social implications of the pandemic).
In fact, I’ve heard some people describe the symptoms of H1N1 as similar to Ebola :) It’s quite funny but also disturbing to see how people react to threats like these, and how quickly they seem to invent information out of thin air to justify their own irrational panic.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:19 am
Thanks Terry for this post. I’ve heard a lot of urban myths lately about this pandemic, and it’s great that, even though you’re not an expert, you’re still way more knowledgeable than the average person, and that you’ve chosen to share your views and thoughts.
I’d like to hear what you think about all the measures people are taking themselves like face masks, etc., and what you’d suggest we do (knowing about all the social implications of the pandemic).
In fact, I’ve heard some people describe the symptoms of H1N1 as similar to Ebola :) It’s quite funny but also disturbing to see how people react to threats like these, and how quickly they seem to invent information out of thin air to justify their own irrational panic.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:29 am
Thanks for the post! I would vote for more posts from you on the topic as things evolve. You have a reasonable voice.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:29 am
Thanks for the post! I would vote for more posts from you on the topic as things evolve. You have a reasonable voice.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:43 am
Hi Zac
I don’t know what to suggest re face masks. I was looking around on the street today, half expecting to see one. Back in 1918 before we even knew what a virus was (and how small they are) the typical mask would have been totally ineffective – the virions would likely have gone through as if the mask wasn’t even there. So… false sense of security. It should be clear that you can’t just buy a mask from a street vendor.
The symptoms of the current virus are just like regular flu. The WHO and CDC sites are quite clear about that. Without going into details, in 1918 the situation was quite different and much much more alarming. Google cytokine storm. There were people who thought the bubonic plague had returned.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:43 am
Hi Zac
I don’t know what to suggest re face masks. I was looking around on the street today, half expecting to see one. Back in 1918 before we even knew what a virus was (and how small they are) the typical mask would have been totally ineffective – the virions would likely have gone through as if the mask wasn’t even there. So… false sense of security. It should be clear that you can’t just buy a mask from a street vendor.
The symptoms of the current virus are just like regular flu. The WHO and CDC sites are quite clear about that. Without going into details, in 1918 the situation was quite different and much much more alarming. Google cytokine storm. There were people who thought the bubonic plague had returned.
April 30th, 2009 at 1:45 am
Anna – hi! And thanks. I may write more, as the mood takes me… I actually don’t have much to say. Just some knowledge that others are interested in. But no real point to make or position to argue.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:45 am
Anna – hi! And thanks. I may write more, as the mood takes me… I actually don’t have much to say. Just some knowledge that others are interested in. But no real point to make or position to argue.
April 30th, 2009 at 2:27 am
Thanks Terry, I really liked these articles, I found the social aspect of what’s going on to be very interesting – I live in Mexico City, and I don’t know of anyone who is (confirmed) sick with this flu, yet it is very, very scary. I’ve heard tons of rumors, and conspiracies theories and have already observed how opinions and feelings in times like these can become deeply divided. No one really knows what’s going on, nor how dangerous it is, or what’s going to happen… yet I find it strangely comforting that to know that that’s normal. Keep writing, I don’t feel you are fear-mongering in the least… , on the contrary, it’s wonderful to hear someone being frank about the way pandemics work.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:27 am
Thanks Terry, I really liked these articles, I found the social aspect of what’s going on to be very interesting – I live in Mexico City, and I don’t know of anyone who is (confirmed) sick with this flu, yet it is very, very scary. I’ve heard tons of rumors, and conspiracies theories and have already observed how opinions and feelings in times like these can become deeply divided. No one really knows what’s going on, nor how dangerous it is, or what’s going to happen… yet I find it strangely comforting that to know that that’s normal. Keep writing, I don’t feel you are fear-mongering in the least… , on the contrary, it’s wonderful to hear someone being frank about the way pandemics work.
April 30th, 2009 at 3:31 am
Thanks for the update Terry. So valuable in this time of mass disinformation. I’ve got some questions that you might be able to help answer. I know that flu generally is responsible for many thousands of deaths each year, usually affecting the very young and elderly with less competent immune systems. Why then have we been propelled into Phase 5 of the WHO’s Pandemic alert system this time? So far this particular flu outbreak has been confirmed as having been responsible for the deaths of less than 10 (albeit it is suspected in well over 100 other deaths so far). Is the WHO on such a high alert because this is a new strain of A H1N1 that we’ve not come across before and not knowing exactly how it might behave is making them extra vigilant? Or is it because it is spreading faster than your average flu? Or is it the case that, since this particular flu is suspected of having killed so many people in an age group that flu does not usually affect so much, the WHO et al are more alarmed than they might normally be? Thanks in advance for helping clarify this stuff :>
April 30th, 2009 at 4:31 am
Thanks for the update Terry. So valuable in this time of mass disinformation. I’ve got some questions that you might be able to help answer. I know that flu generally is responsible for many thousands of deaths each year, usually affecting the very young and elderly with less competent immune systems. Why then have we been propelled into Phase 5 of the WHO’s Pandemic alert system this time? So far this particular flu outbreak has been confirmed as having been responsible for the deaths of less than 10 (albeit it is suspected in well over 100 other deaths so far). Is the WHO on such a high alert because this is a new strain of A H1N1 that we’ve not come across before and not knowing exactly how it might behave is making them extra vigilant? Or is it because it is spreading faster than your average flu? Or is it the case that, since this particular flu is suspected of having killed so many people in an age group that flu does not usually affect so much, the WHO et al are more alarmed than they might normally be? Thanks in advance for helping clarify this stuff :>
April 30th, 2009 at 3:56 am
” I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.”
“the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent”
“Phase 6, the pandemic phase”
Doesn’t sound like its an official influenza pandemic to me.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:56 am
” I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.”
“the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent”
“Phase 6, the pandemic phase”
Doesn’t sound like its an official influenza pandemic to me.
April 30th, 2009 at 7:30 am
@Zebidee: The health organizations are playing a bit of catch up but I’m glad they are. Raising the alert levels triggers a whole slate of measures on country, state/province/local basis which helps all of those levels of government and people brace against a full scale pandemic.
The thing about pandemic infection is once it starts to accelerate or worse, once it’s all over the place, it’s kinda to late to contain. That’s where we are now. So, the faster they move to 6, the more likely it is that other mechanisms can be put into place to stop the spread and/or speed up research which can save people’s lives if not outright protect them from infection. On the other hand, they can’t be seen to be alarmist, so there’s a balance to be struck. A very careful and nerve-wracking balance.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:30 am
@Zebidee: The health organizations are playing a bit of catch up but I’m glad they are. Raising the alert levels triggers a whole slate of measures on country, state/province/local basis which helps all of those levels of government and people brace against a full scale pandemic.
The thing about pandemic infection is once it starts to accelerate or worse, once it’s all over the place, it’s kinda to late to contain. That’s where we are now. So, the faster they move to 6, the more likely it is that other mechanisms can be put into place to stop the spread and/or speed up research which can save people’s lives if not outright protect them from infection. On the other hand, they can’t be seen to be alarmist, so there’s a balance to be struck. A very careful and nerve-wracking balance.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:22 am
Hi Zebidee
The reason is that this is a new influenza that has genetic material from other species. The normal (epidemic) flu kills hundreds of thousands a year, maybe 1/2 a million. We know a lot about that kind of flu as the strains are typically very similar to the ones from the previous season. That’s why the previous vaccine often still gives good coverage. We still need to update the vaccine every year or two, but the change is relatively slow. We even get to base the vaccine on an existing strain that is at least half a year old by the time the vaccine is manufactured and available to normal people.
The problem with a virus that comes out of another species, or partly from another species, is that it’s very likely no human immune system has ever encountered it before. It’s possible that our immune systems will have no defense at all against it – or even that they will mount a massive defense that is completely ineffective (see cytokine storm in Wikipedia). So when we see something like that happen, the worldwide alert system kicks in. Such a virus may be able, or via a small number of mutations be able, to spread across the globe unchecked. Even though it’s still “flu” it’s not a flu that’s anything like what our bodies have seen before. Of course it’s also possible that a virus of this kind doesn’t prove particularly fit in our bodies. It’s a very rare event that a cross-species virus even gets a foothold. When it does though, and here it very clearly has, it’s time to be super vigilant.
April 30th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Hi Zebidee
The reason is that this is a new influenza that has genetic material from other species. The normal (epidemic) flu kills hundreds of thousands a year, maybe 1/2 a million. We know a lot about that kind of flu as the strains are typically very similar to the ones from the previous season. That’s why the previous vaccine often still gives good coverage. We still need to update the vaccine every year or two, but the change is relatively slow. We even get to base the vaccine on an existing strain that is at least half a year old by the time the vaccine is manufactured and available to normal people.
The problem with a virus that comes out of another species, or partly from another species, is that it’s very likely no human immune system has ever encountered it before. It’s possible that our immune systems will have no defense at all against it – or even that they will mount a massive defense that is completely ineffective (see cytokine storm in Wikipedia). So when we see something like that happen, the worldwide alert system kicks in. Such a virus may be able, or via a small number of mutations be able, to spread across the globe unchecked. Even though it’s still “flu” it’s not a flu that’s anything like what our bodies have seen before. Of course it’s also possible that a virus of this kind doesn’t prove particularly fit in our bodies. It’s a very rare event that a cross-species virus even gets a foothold. When it does though, and here it very clearly has, it’s time to be super vigilant.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:29 am
Hi Justus
Yes, you’re right that we’re only at level 5. I should probably have made that clear. As for whether it can be called a pandemic, the WHO statement says things like “WHO will be tracking the pandemic” and “how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?”. and “the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response”.
From all that I think it’s fairly safe to think that the WHO is of the opinion that we’re at the beginning of a pandemic. The word itself doesn’t matter much – I guess you know its Greek etymology.
Anyway, you’re right, and apologies for not being more clear.
April 30th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Hi Justus
Yes, you’re right that we’re only at level 5. I should probably have made that clear. As for whether it can be called a pandemic, the WHO statement says things like “WHO will be tracking the pandemic” and “how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?”. and “the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response”.
From all that I think it’s fairly safe to think that the WHO is of the opinion that we’re at the beginning of a pandemic. The word itself doesn’t matter much – I guess you know its Greek etymology.
Anyway, you’re right, and apologies for not being more clear.
April 30th, 2009 at 8:44 am
Hi Victoria
Thanks for commenting. You’re witnessing first hand how odd things can get. I only know it from reading books. Maybe you can tell us more about how things are, etc?
April 30th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Hi Victoria
Thanks for commenting. You’re witnessing first hand how odd things can get. I only know it from reading books. Maybe you can tell us more about how things are, etc?
April 30th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
I think your post is a little over the top. Not by much, but it’s evident that you’re feeling some fear and are trying (in a mostly healthy way) to cope with that fear.
I take issue, however with your projected outcomes. They are, after all, projections (and you seem to recognize this). In particular your contention that societal customs and infrastructure will be transformed. That’s unclear. While it is certain that a pandemic of significant force will certainly stress our infrastructure and put hitherto undefined pressures on our customs there are no clear lines, I think, to the sort of transformation you forsee.
If I may relate this present situation to to another, current situation: our national disgrace of torture. It has been pointed out, elsewhere (and please forgive me if I forget where…) that during the height of the attacks on London and England by the Nazis the opportunity presented itself to torture downed German pilots and captured German intelligence officer. Winston Churchill, with the backing of Her Majesty’s government, refused.
I think the London bombings during WWII, and subsequent bombings on German cities by Americans, and indeed the fairly wholesale devastation of much of Europe in WWI and WWII, represented stresses and pressures far in excess of what we’ll see in any but the most virulent pandemic. It was, I think, one of the worst situations imaginable, but many people, particularly Londoners, refused to buckle under that stress. They reached deep and found some backbone. We’re not, fundamentally, all that different.
Our present use of torture was the decision of a very few small-minded people who, to a one, lacked any kind of backbone acting on behalf of a very comfortable peoples. I think a pandemic might remove that comfort, but it won’t remove backbone.
Just some thoughts. I appreciate the dialogue…
April 30th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
I think your post is a little over the top. Not by much, but it’s evident that you’re feeling some fear and are trying (in a mostly healthy way) to cope with that fear.
I take issue, however with your projected outcomes. They are, after all, projections (and you seem to recognize this). In particular your contention that societal customs and infrastructure will be transformed. That’s unclear. While it is certain that a pandemic of significant force will certainly stress our infrastructure and put hitherto undefined pressures on our customs there are no clear lines, I think, to the sort of transformation you forsee.
If I may relate this present situation to to another, current situation: our national disgrace of torture. It has been pointed out, elsewhere (and please forgive me if I forget where…) that during the height of the attacks on London and England by the Nazis the opportunity presented itself to torture downed German pilots and captured German intelligence officer. Winston Churchill, with the backing of Her Majesty’s government, refused.
I think the London bombings during WWII, and subsequent bombings on German cities by Americans, and indeed the fairly wholesale devastation of much of Europe in WWI and WWII, represented stresses and pressures far in excess of what we’ll see in any but the most virulent pandemic. It was, I think, one of the worst situations imaginable, but many people, particularly Londoners, refused to buckle under that stress. They reached deep and found some backbone. We’re not, fundamentally, all that different.
Our present use of torture was the decision of a very few small-minded people who, to a one, lacked any kind of backbone acting on behalf of a very comfortable peoples. I think a pandemic might remove that comfort, but it won’t remove backbone.
Just some thoughts. I appreciate the dialogue…
April 30th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Hi Terry,
Nice post, but I’d love to read the properly alarming reports! Could you mail them to me?
Thanks,
Bryn
April 30th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Hi Terry,
Nice post, but I’d love to read the properly alarming reports! Could you mail them to me?
Thanks,
Bryn
April 30th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Well, first of all, I don’t know anyone sick, although I have heard of 2 or 3 “friends of friends” who have or had the swine flu – but of course these are not confirmed.
Of course the kids have been out of school since last Friday, and as I am a school teacher, I have just been at home. Knowing that all the schoolchildren were at home, in all of Mexico City and Mexico State really concerned me.
At first people were blowing it off, many friends I have were very dismissive of the warnings, but as the weekend wore on, many of those friends decided to stay at home after all.
I’ve started receiving very elaborate emails detailing with links and references theories as to what is “really” going on – I’ve received at this point at least 4 very distinct ones, and I have one friend who continues to assert that the government of Mexico is behind all of this… The conspiracy theories themselves don’t interest me – I just find it fascinating the need to seek out and insist on connections and plots. Another friend of mine almost had an argument with a friend, over the same kind of thing. I just keep saying, let’s just be careful and see what happens.
There are disquieting rumors, again, all hearsay, about people who work in hospitals and how this has been going on for much longer,etc. In Mexico, no one really trusts the media – so people pretty much assume there’s a lot more going on than what we are being told. That’s the most frustrating part. The uncertainty.
I live downtown, I can go out for a walk and there are a lot of stores open, but business is down. About half the people are wearing facemasks – but there are no more to be had, they sold out by last weekend. If you sneeze or cough, people will give you suspicious looks and get out of your way fast. People are much more careful with their personal space.
Actually, it’s pretty boring. Combined with the uncertainty, and the mounting worries about the economy, it’s almost depressing. Curiously, I don’t feel afraid of catching the flu. I’m mostly worried about how things will play out in the next week.
That´s about it for now, I hope my update is helpful.
April 30th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Well, first of all, I don’t know anyone sick, although I have heard of 2 or 3 “friends of friends” who have or had the swine flu – but of course these are not confirmed.
Of course the kids have been out of school since last Friday, and as I am a school teacher, I have just been at home. Knowing that all the schoolchildren were at home, in all of Mexico City and Mexico State really concerned me.
At first people were blowing it off, many friends I have were very dismissive of the warnings, but as the weekend wore on, many of those friends decided to stay at home after all.
I’ve started receiving very elaborate emails detailing with links and references theories as to what is “really” going on – I’ve received at this point at least 4 very distinct ones, and I have one friend who continues to assert that the government of Mexico is behind all of this… The conspiracy theories themselves don’t interest me – I just find it fascinating the need to seek out and insist on connections and plots. Another friend of mine almost had an argument with a friend, over the same kind of thing. I just keep saying, let’s just be careful and see what happens.
There are disquieting rumors, again, all hearsay, about people who work in hospitals and how this has been going on for much longer,etc. In Mexico, no one really trusts the media – so people pretty much assume there’s a lot more going on than what we are being told. That’s the most frustrating part. The uncertainty.
I live downtown, I can go out for a walk and there are a lot of stores open, but business is down. About half the people are wearing facemasks – but there are no more to be had, they sold out by last weekend. If you sneeze or cough, people will give you suspicious looks and get out of your way fast. People are much more careful with their personal space.
Actually, it’s pretty boring. Combined with the uncertainty, and the mounting worries about the economy, it’s almost depressing. Curiously, I don’t feel afraid of catching the flu. I’m mostly worried about how things will play out in the next week.
That´s about it for now, I hope my update is helpful.
April 30th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I have already isolated my family with adequate supplies in our country home. I figure what’s the harm in just laying very low for a couple of days. If it gets worse then I’ll be happy for the lack of negative exposure, if it clears up we can return to life as it was very well rested… I want to know the bad things I can expect, everyone is downplaying this for the economy and I want to know the hard facts… NOW! Maybe you could fill me in please?
April 30th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
I have already isolated my family with adequate supplies in our country home. I figure what’s the harm in just laying very low for a couple of days. If it gets worse then I’ll be happy for the lack of negative exposure, if it clears up we can return to life as it was very well rested… I want to know the bad things I can expect, everyone is downplaying this for the economy and I want to know the hard facts… NOW! Maybe you could fill me in please?
May 1st, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Just found this nice site with flu data.
Some useful stuff there.
http://www.mexicaninfluenza.net
I don’t think that thsi thing will go pandemic! It will be gone within a month.
May 1st, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Just found this nice site with flu data.
Some useful stuff there.
http://www.mexicaninfluenza.net
I don’t think that thsi thing will go pandemic! It will be gone within a month.
May 20th, 2009 at 2:13 am
Think again. I think this thing has a loong way to go. I really hope I’m wrong tho.
May 20th, 2009 at 3:13 am
Think again. I think this thing has a loong way to go. I really hope I’m wrong tho.
June 12th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
[…] Take note that staff protection will also affect them. How will they deal with it when your staff has all the protective gear and they don’t? Things could get ugly. […]